Iran image -- in red and gray

Andrea Austria / Media Matters

Research/Study Research/Study

Right-wing media’s scattered predictions on when the Iran war will end

Fox senior strategic analyst and retired Gen. Jack Keane on February 28: “It may last as long as two to three weeks”

Written by Helena Hind, Isabella Corrao & Jane Lee

Published

The Trump administration has failed to offer the American public a clear timeline on how long the war in Iran will last. Right-wing media’s scattered predictions on the timeline reflect Trump’s inconsistency — sometimes the war will end vaguely soon, sometimes it will take weeks, sometimes the U.S. has already won.

As the war has progressed, many right-wing media figures have additionally claimed that the end is contingent on the U.S. controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, some right-wing figures have challenged the administration's assertions that the war will be wrapped up quickly.

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  • Trump has made various claims about the length of the war on Iran (and resulting Strait of Hormuz blockage), dividing right-wing media

    • On February 28, President Donald Trump released a video on Truth Social announcing the war and his objective to eliminate “imminent threats from the Iranian regime” but offering no timeline for how long the war would last. Trump declared that the U.S. would destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, Iran’s navy, and Iran’s support of terrorist proxies. Trump also left vague instructions of regime change to the Iranian people: “When we are finished, take over your government.” [PBS, 2/28/26; The New York Times, 4/1/26]  
    • On March 2, Trump stated that the war would last four to five weeks but that the military could “go far longer than that.” Trump also noted that “we’re already substantially ahead of our time projections, but whatever the time is, it’s OK, whatever it takes.” That same night while bragging about “virtually unlimited” munitions stockpiles, Trump stated in a Truth Social post, “Wars can be fought ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies.” [The Guardian, 3/2/26; Truth Social, 3/2/26]
    • Trump has also repeatedly declared victory in Iran, even as the war has broadened and intensified. [The Guardian, 3/30/26]
    • Iran has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz — a critical energy shipping lane — since the beginning of Trump’s war, which has caused major supply chain disruptions and a surge in oil prices. If Trump ends U.S. involvement in Iran without securing the strait, Iran would have the opportunity to exert further control over shipping and potentially implement tolls. As CNN reported: “If the plans are implemented, it would reinforce Tehran’s control and open a vast and much-needed revenue stream for the Islamic Republic, of as much as a few million dollars per tanker, that Iran did not enjoy before the US and Israeli war was launched.” Affected non-oil commodities include fertilizers, sulfur, aluminum, and critical commodities related to the green energy transition. [CNN, 4/2/26; World Economic Forum, 4/1/26]
    • The Iran war has deepened existing divisions in right-wing media. While major outlets like Fox and Newsmax have mostly supported U.S. involvement in Iran, prominent independent figures like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and Nick Fuentes have criticized the war effort. [Media Matters, 3/27/26; 3/2/26]

  • In the days following the initial attack, right-wing media claimed the war would end shortly

    • Fox host Laura Ingraham: “We've already knocked out so much of their capability. It looks like this is just a wrapup mission at this point.” [Fox News, The Ingraham Angle, 3/3/26]
    • Fox host Greg Gutfeld: “I don’t see how this thing can continue much longer.” Gutfeld: “I do think normally this feels like it would already be over, like when you completely clean out the head and leave the body — maybe there's just nobody who can declare surrender because they're dead. I don't know, but I don't see how this thing can continue much longer.” [Fox News, The Five, 3/5/26]  
    • Fox host Tomi Lahren: “I think that what you're seeing here is going to be very quick work made of Iran.” She continued, “Of course they're going to push back because they have, again, that inflated sense of self and that inflated ego and they have to fight back. But I think that's why you’re seeing the confidence from President Trump that this is not going to be an endless war, a forever war. This is going to be in, this is going to be out, and hopefully a new future for Iran.” [Fox News, Outnumbered, 3/6/26]
    • Fox contributor Tyrus: “I'm willing to say that this is a done deal. I’m excited about this. I will get my banner out and put my beard on the line. I think by summertime it's going to be an amazing time to be an American and it's going to be an amazing time to be all over the world, because the sheriff is back.” [Fox News, The Five, 3/6/26] 

  • As the war continued, many right-wing media figures insisted it should be ending imminently

    • On Fox News, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, on Trump saying war is “pretty much” complete: “I think the president is right. It was easier than we thought.” [Fox News, The Story with Martha MacCallum, 3/9/26] 
    • Newsmax’s Carl Higbie: “I think he’s [Trump] on the right track. It looks like it’s going to be wrapping up.” [Newsmax, Carl Higbie Frontline, 3/9/26] 
    • Newsmax host Rob Finnerty: “I think we're at the end of serious U.S. involvement in Iran.” [Newsmax, Finnerty, 3/9/26] 
    • Newsmax’s Greg Kelly predicted that the war will be over “soon,” saying, “This time next week, we may be able to declare victory and warn Iran, don't do it again. But it could be over.” [Newsmax, Greg Kelly Reports, 3/9/26] 
    • Fox Business contributor Phil Flynn: “I think the market’s already seeing signs that this could be coming to an end.” [Fox News, America Reports, 3/10/26] 
    • Finnerty: “The war in Iran appears to be winding down. I think it is." [Newsmax, Finnerty, 3/10/26] 
    • Sean Hannity: “I am a firm believer that this is going to end very quickly.” [Premiere Radio Networks, The Sean Hannity Show, 3/10/26] 
    • Kelly: Iran war is “winding down” and “contained.” [Newsmax, Greg Kelly Reports, 3/16/26] 
    • Kelly: “From what I'm hearing, this thing is going to be over probably before the 28th day. This is contained.” [Newsmax, Greg Kelly Reports, 3/17/26] 
    • Hannity: “The mission will be accomplished” in Iran in about a month. [Premiere Radio Networks, The Sean Hannity Show, 3/17/25] 
    • Hudson Institute senior fellow Rebeccah Heinrichs said the war “is going to be short.” Heinrichs: “If it was a year-long war, that would still be a very short war in terms of the length and duration that these things can go. I don't think it’s going to be that. I still believe that it’s going to be short.” [Fox News, America’s Newsroom, 3/19/26] 
    • Hannity: “Even in a worst case scenario, I really can't see this going on much longer than a month from now under any scenario.” He continued, “I'm hopeful that it ends even sooner. I really am. I think like most of us are.” [Premiere Radio Networks, The Sean Hannity Show, 3/23/26]
    • Podcaster Benny Johnson: “There’s no way Trump is going to let this be in a forever war. … Trump’s wrapping this sucker up.” [The Benny Show, 3/23/26] 
    • Podcaster and former co-deputy director of the FBI Dan Bongino: “Trump's giving you the exit plan. … He is not there for a forever war. He is there with a certain set of metrics. Those metrics are close to being accomplished.” Bongino: “He's given the Iranians one last diplomatic push if you believe this source. And if it doesn't happen, there's going to be a final knockout punch, and then he's pulling out of there to get back to what we have to do here.  Like, every single thing we've advocated against, forever wars, death to America, terrorists, all this stuff has been accomplished. Why are all these former military guys bitching and moaning?” [Rumble, The Dan Bongino Show, 3/26/26]

  • Some right-wing media said the war will end in “weeks”

    • Fox senior strategic analyst and retired Gen. Jack Keane: “This is not about days, this is about weeks.” He continued: “This is a major campaign designed to set the conditions for regime collapse.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends Weekend, 2/28/26]
    • Keane: “We haven’t done anything like this on this kind of scale since Desert Storm, so it is very significant. It may last as long as two to three weeks. However, given the decapitation of the leaders that has already taken place with the 40 leaders and the ayatollah, now Larijani, Ali Larijani’s in charge. He’s a hardliner as well and certainly he is likely going to be targeted, or there may be people not wanting to support him.” [Fox News, Hannity, 2/28/26]
    • Turning Point USA spokesman Andrew Kolvet said that if the war lasted for weeks, it would be “politically and militarily a bad outcome.” [Rumble, The Charlie Kirk Show, 2/28/26]
    • Fox chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin: “I believe that this will likely go on for weeks. And in terms of the success, I think it's premature to describe it as successful except to say that of course the military in the first 24 hours has performed flawlessly.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends Weekend, 3/1/26]
    • Keane said, “This campaign is planned for two to three weeks at a minimum,” but “if it’s going to take longer … he’s going to stick with it.” Keane: “That is why this campaign is planned for two to three weeks at a minimum. It will be condition based. In other words, if it's going to take longer and you heard the president yesterday, if it's going to take a month, he's going to stick with it. If we can do it sooner and there's fractions and fissures in the infrastructure and it starts to collapse and they start waving a white flag a little bit, maybe we'll negotiate with them.” [Fox Business, Mornings with Maria Bartiromo, 3/2/26]
    • Fox anchor Sandra Smith: “The president is now talking about four to five weeks or longer for this war to last.” [Fox News, America Reports, 3/2/26]
    • Fox host Sean Hannity: “What the president's looking at here and what he's been discussing is four to five weeks, maybe, of American involvement in this, and that's it. And, you know, at that point, it's going to be up to the Iranian people. We are not going to be really out there nation building.” [Premiere Radio Networks, The Sean Hannity Show, 3/4/26]
    • The Daily Wire’s Ben Shapiro declared that the Iran war will last “days or weeks. … It’s not going to be a monthslong thing and it certainly will not be a yearslong thing.” [The Daily Wire, The Ben Shapiro Show, 3/4/26]
    • Fox contributor Ben Domenech: “This has to be a war that is encompassed in the realm of weeks, and at most months, not something that drags on. Not something that certainly drags on into the summer. That's going to require our military to do a lot of things in short order. They've shown the capability to do it thus far. I think the president has the confidence in their ability to do it, and that’s why I don't think this is going to be any kind of decisive issue and certainly it is not leading to the crackup of the coalition of the right which I think is as united around Donald Trump as it ever has been.” [Fox News, The Ingraham Angle, 3/5/26]
    • Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg said on Hannity: “Another week, two weeks, three weeks or so and I think this is going to be all done. The revolutionary guard has to know this, the enemy that's left has to know that they're being defeated in detail and they're not going to win this fight regardless of what's said, they are losing.” [Fox News, Hannity, 3/5/26]
    • Sean Hannity suggested the war will last “between four and six weeks.” Hannity: “I know a lot of people are rightly concerned over the price of gas. Let me give you a prediction. If they think this war is going to go on between four and six weeks. We're now wrapping up week one. I mean, I can't believe it's only been a week because I've been so immersed 24/7 in this.” [Premiere Radio Networks, The Sean Hannity Show, 3/6/26]
    • Former surface warfare officer Tom Sauer: “We're looking at a true victory here coming, you know, in the weeks to come.” [Fox News, The Ingraham Angle, 3/10/26]
    • Ben Shapiro criticized podcaster Joe Rogan for opposing the Iran war: “Joe keeps insisting that this is an endless war. Now, that's wild because we are less than two weeks into the war and it's not going to last probably more than another two weeks.” [The Daily Wire, The Ben Shapiro Show, 3/11/26] 
    • On The Sean Hannity Show, guest Bill O’Reilly claimed ceasefire negotiations will begin “within a week to ten days.” O’Reilly: “Now going forward, I do believe that there will be an outreach from whoever is running the country in Iran to President Trump to try to negotiate some kind of ceasefire. I believe that will happen. And I think that if they capitulate, that the president will take that, alright? And that should start, I would say, within a week to ten days. I think they — America and Israel want to punish the Iranians a little bit more, knock out a few more things so they have no offensive capacity. But I am expecting a restart of the negotiation and the capitulation from the Iranians. Now it won't be — they won't say that, but that's what it'll be.” [Premiere Radio Networks, The Sean Hannity Show, 3/11/26] 
    • Right-wing commentator Tim Pool: “I have been told in no uncertain terms that this is going to be wrapped up. It's going to be wrapped up, win or lose. This is not going to extend beyond a few more weeks.” Pool continued: “I'm not an insider. I don't have access, you know, like I'm not getting access to any secret information like that. I'm just in the D.C. area and people whisper things and what I heard was the administration can't sustain the span a few more weeks. They're not going to regardless of what happens. They're going to wind things down. I hope so. And that's why I'm trying to be optimistic and not just super harsh on the Trump administration like many are because we may actually see this wind down and pull back so long as we keep calm.” [Timcast, 3/23/26]
    • Fox News chief political analyst Brit Hume: “This could go for several more weeks.” He continued: “The critical thing for the president and his party at this stage is it be completed successfully in a way that the world will look at it and say, wow, we really as a world now are safer than we were and that Iran and its hideous ambitions to dominate the Middle East and through it the world to some extent has been set back, not permanently but for the foreseeable future. That would be an outcome that everyone would be happy with and that would, I think, change the president's political fortunes and that of his party. That is sort of where we are, Martha, and I think several more weeks is likely. I think the ground troops possibility is real, although I think the president would be hesitant to do it.” [Fox News, The Story with Martha MacCallum, 3/26/26] 
    • Hannity: “It's going to be on the verge of wrapping up no later than three weeks from today is my prediction.” [Premiere Radio Networks, The Sean Hannity Show, 3/30/26]

  • Some right-wing media figures said the war has already been won

    • Ingraham: “Trump has already won in Iran.” [Fox News, The Ingraham Angle, 3/5/26]
    • Ingraham claimed: “What we have seen over the last week is a clear and strategic and tactical victory for the USA.” She insisted: “There is zero reason to believe that Donald Trump is going to get us mired in a never-ending pointless conflict.” [Fox News, The Ingraham Angle, 3/9/26] 
    • Ingraham: “Just a few days into Operation Epic Fury, it was obvious that America had already destroyed the core elements of Iran’s nuclear and missile capability, along with the regime’s leadership.” Ingraham also said that Trump is “keenly attuned to what we need to do to advance our interest, to keep us safe, and, of course, going forward to propel our economy. And that does not include another drawn-out conflict in the Middle East.” [Fox News, The Ingraham Angle, 3/9/26] 
    • Fox guest and Heritage Foundation senior counselor James Carafano responded to a press conference from Pete Hegseth: “The reality is the U.S. has already won this war, period. Mic drop. End of statement.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 3/13/26]
    • Greg Kelly: “I think we kind of just won the war.” [Newsmax, Greg Kelly Reports, 3/16/26] 
    • Carafano claimed on Fox that “it does make sense for the U.S. to say, hey, let's wind this down. Look, from America's perspective, dude, we have already won.” [Fox News, America Reports, 3/23/26]

  • Some right-wing media figures said the timeline is contingent on controlling the Strait of Hormuz

    • While outlining the military’s objectives in Iran on Fox, retired Gen. David Petraeus noted that “every last” Iranian naval ship has to be taken, “because you want to be able to have freedom of navigation through the Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz.” [Fox News, America Reports, 3/6/26] 
    • Appearing on Fox, Vice Adm. Robert Harward said “we can take our time” in Iran once the Strait of Hormuz is cleared for ship passage: “Once that’s solved, once that’s eradicated, we can do whatever we want and time becomes less relevant to the equation.” Harward: “We have time on our hand. We can take our time to ensure there’s a transition of the regime. We can take time to put in inspectors to make sure all the apparatus of the nuclear programs are gone.” [Fox News, America’s Newsroom, 3/9/26] 
    • Fox Business host Larry Kudlow stated that “one of our most important war aims” was “to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.” Kudlow: “That's what the president is saying and I would believe him. He's been very consistent. Look, no nuclear weaponry, no nuclear fissionable weapons, get rid of the missiles, knock out as many missiles as possible, and the Strait of Hormuz must be open.” [Fox News, America Reports, 3/10/26] 
    • Fox contributor Paul Mauro: “At the very least, at the end of this whole caper, we are going to control that strait. Trump’s not leaving without that being locked down.” [Fox News, Outnumbered, 3/11/26] 
    • Charlie Kirk Show producer Blake Neff: “President Trump can’t declare victory unless the Strait of Hormuz is open. Period.” Neff continued: “So he either has to strike a deal to open it or he has to force it open. Only then can he say is it a win." [The Charlie Kirk Show, 3/12/26] 
    • Former CIA covert operations officer Mike Baker, appearing on Newsmax: “We can declare victory, and the White House can say we won, but it doesn't matter if the Iranian regime continues to control the strait.” “They will continue, in a sense, to control the global energy markets,” he added. [Newsmax, Carl Higbie Frontline, 3/12/26] 
    • Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, appearing on Fox: “It's critical that we actually, as a global entity, defeat this Iranian threat to the straits and allow the United States to escort these ships through until we establish the conditions where escorts are no longer required.” Montgomery then predicted that “somewhere between March 21 or March 28 is the time frame I would look for for our ability to escort ships.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 3/13/26] 
    • Fox host Brian Kilmeade said “we can finish the job” once our allies help “open up the strait.” Kilmeade: “This is a chronic problem. We are finally addressing it. Europe knows that, but they’re not acknowledging it. All we need is our allies to help us out, to open up the strait, the price of oil goes down, and we can finish the job. Once that happens we will see it drop like a rock.” [Fox News, Jesse Watters Primetime, 3/18/26]
    • Former Hudson Institute senior fellow Aaron MacLean: “I really do think President Trump is going to need to get the strait reopened with an escort operation before he can sort of call this game or at least this portion of the game.” [Salem Radio Network, The Scott Jennings Show, 3/18/26]
    • Jim Hanson, chief strategist for the Middle East Forum: “The Strait of Hormuz has to open for this to be a win for the president, and he's going to do that.” Hanson: “I think anybody who knows the military, when they heard that the Warthogs are now hunting Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz, and the last thing some of those guys see before they become an oil slick is [machine gun noises] coming down at them, that's good news, that’s a serious way to deal with the problem, and I think the strait will open relatively soon.” [Fox News, Jesse Watters Primetime, 3/19/26]
    • Kilmeade said “[stopping] short of solving this problem” of Iran using Hormuz as a point of leverage would be a “bad outcome,” and guest Phil Flynn agreed: “I don’t think we can let it happen, and we can’t end the war until it does.” Flynn continued: “I feel really confident that the world is going to finally band together to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and I think the world's going to thank President Trump because we have been paying a terror premium on that strait for the last 50 years.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 3/20/26]
    • Schmitt said it’s not “politically viable for the president to walk away” from Iran with the regime still intact, and guest Elliott Abrams added: “If the Strait of Hormuz isn't really open, freely open, the president is going to look like he did not win this war.” [Newsmax, Rob Schmitt Tonight, 3/30/26]
    • Kilmeade: “The bottom line is when this ends, Iran cannot be in control” of the Strait of Hormuz. [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 3/30/26]
    • Ben Shapiro: “The president knows that the Strait of Hormuz, if left in Iranian control, would allow for the Iranian government to rebuild and strengthen.” Shapiro: “What is the most likely scenario here? Probably major action to reopen the strait, to grab Kharg Island, to throttle the Iranian regime by cutting off its lifelines of the global economy.” [Daily Wire, The Ben Shapiro Show, 3/31/26]
    • Fox News State Department correspondent Benjamin Hall: “The Strait of Hormuz is still not open. That’s something that I think has to be addressed. You can't allow Iran to control that waterway.” [Fox News, America’s Newsroom, 4/1/26]
    • Retired Vice Adm. John Miller, appearing on Fox: “Until ships can go in and out of the Arabian gulf without being accosted by the Iranian regime in the Strait of Hormuz, the work’s not quite done. And we need to finish that work before we can call an end to the hostilities.” [Fox News, The Story with Martha MacCallum, 4/1/26]
    • Brit Hume: “They’ve got a gnarly problem in the Strait of Hormuz. It has to be resolved before this can be called a full success.” [Fox News, Special Report with Bret Baier, 4/1/26] 
    • Jesse Watters: “The ending has to end in the strait being open, one way or the other, by force, by foreign armada, or by ceasefire. That's got to happen.” [Fox News, The Five, 4/2/26]

  • Some right-wing media figures and guests dismissed discussion of the timeline, saying we don’t know how long it will take

    • Fox News host Jesse Watters: “This could take days, weeks, months — I don't know. Nobody knows.” He continued, “We’re not giving Iran a timeline so they can wait us out like Obama in Afghanistan.” [Fox News, Jesse Watters Primetime, 3/4/26]
    • Fox News host Lisa Kennedy Montgomery: “We don't know how long the war is going to be.” Montgomery: “Pete Hegseth took some incoming for going on 60 Minutes and saying we're not going to telegraph exactly what we're doing. We’re not going to tell you if there's going to be a ground invasion because there has to be an element of unpredictability. I don't blame him for that. What I worry about are the things that we don't see coming, the things that are not anticipatable, and the things that could really wreak havoc in the United States of America.” [Fox News, The Five, 3/9/26] 
    • On Jesse Watters Primetime, Fox Business host Charles Payne said: “The timing is the timing.” He then complained about people who expect Trump to “win a war in one day, or it's not a success.” [Fox News, Jesse Watters Primetime, 3/9/26] 
    • Nathan Sales, former ambassador-at-large, on The Ingraham Angle: “I don't know how long this is going to take. … The timeline should be determined by our military objectives, not by the calendar.” [Fox News, The Ingraham Angle, 3/10/26]
    • Jack Keane stated: “Ten days in, how far do we have to go? It's based on the conditions. And that's what we mean. Based on the conditions of achieving those objectives will determine how long this takes.” Keane also concluded that “it may take longer” than “a few more weeks” because “other targets come up as opportunities for us, and we want to finish that job and make sure it's complete.” [Fox News, Hannity, 3/10/26]
    • Fox News host Martha MacCallum complained about people who question Donald Trump on the timeline of the war: “Everyone who is an adult who has been following this for a long time knows there's no easy answer to that question in this moment.” [Fox News, The Story with Martha MacCallum, 3/12/26] 
    • Watters: Asking when the Iran war will end is “a question that a 5-year-old would ask.” [Fox News, The Five, 3/24/26] 
    • Carl Higbie: “You got to give Trump his timeline here. And we're not there yet. We're not at the six-week mark.” [Newsmax, Carl Higbie Frontline, 3/31/26]

  • Some right-wing media figures and guests predicted the war will last a while

    • The Five co-host Dana Perino: “The president and [Secretary of State Marco] Rubio are the ones saying, ‘Let's just take a beat, guys. This is — We’re in this for the long haul. And I don't know how long the haul will be.’ And they’re not putting a timeline on it, and I think it's correct.” [Fox News, The Five, 3/3/26]
    • Newsmax host Michael Savage declared: “For those who expect a quick victory, I do not share that with you.” He elaborated: “I believe many of you believe this will be a brief and victorious campaign against Iran. I wish I could share that with you, but I do not.”  [Newsmax, Michael Savage: Savage Nation, 3/8/26]
    • Michael Allen, National Security Council senior director under former President George W. Bush: “It may just be the case that this takes a year or more. I think the regime is unreformable. We’re weakening it big time. And so, I think it's possible. It just might take a little while to collapse.” [Fox News, America’s Newsroom, 3/13/26] 
    • On War Room, guest Bradley Thayer: The Iran war is “going to go on for weeks — at least weeks to come.” He added, “The points about war termination I think might be a bit premature.” [Rumble, War Room, 3/13/26] 
    • Tim Pool said: “It is looking like this war is escalating. It is not going to be a clean in-and-out.” [Timcast, 3/19/26]