Minnesota Governor Tim Walz
Andrea Austria / Media Matters

Research/Study Research/Study

Right-wing media smear Tim Walz by pushing misleading claims about Minnesota's crime rate

Written by Pete Tsipis & Reed McMaster

Research contributions from Gideon Taaffe & Ben Van Bloem

Published

Since Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was announced as Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, right-wing media have attempted to misleadingly claim that “crime rates have soared” in Minnesota under Walz’s watch. In reality, the total crime rate in Minnesota hit a 60 year low in 2023, including a steep decline in violent offenses from pandemic-era levels.  

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  • Minnesota’s crime rate followed national trends in 2021 before falling dramatically in 2023

    • Minnesota’s overall crime rate hit a 60 year low in 2023, with violent crime down from pandemic highs. Notably robbery and sexual assault were below pre-pandemic rates. Homicide and aggravated assault remain higher than they were in 2019, but much lower than their highs in 2021. [Minnesota Reformer, 1/18/24]
    • Minnesota’s crime rate largely followed national trends correlated to national events. Increases in crime rates could largely be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, but nationwide unrest following the initial protests over the death of George Floyd and the massive increases in legal gun purchases at the time were also likely factors. [MPR News, 8/15/22]
    • Minnesota has the 11th-lowest homicide rate in the nation. According to the most recently available data from the National Center for Health Statistics, Minnesota had the 11th-lowest homicide rate in the nation in 2022. [CDC.gov, accessed 8/8/24]
    • Right-wing media have latched onto the claim that Minnesota’s violent crime rate increased by 21% under Walz. This data is from 2021 and doesn’t encompass falling rates in the years since. [KMSP, 8/13/22]
    • In 2021 Walz acknowledged the rise in crime as part of a national trend and a necessary consideration in discussions on police reform. According to Walz, “We do need to rethink how we do public safety, but we also need to have a candid conversation about crime rates going up.” [Politico, 8/7/24]
       

  • Despite the facts, right-wing media accused Walz of personally overseeing a surge in crime as governor

    • Fox News’ Sean Hannity blamed Walz for a “21% increase in violent crime in Minnesota.” Hannity claimed, “Like Harris, Walz is weak on violent crime. He's part of this pro-defund, dismantle, reimagine, no bail law insanity of the police, and he presided over a horrific 21% increase in violent crime in Minnesota.” [Premiere Radio Networks, The Sean Hannity Show, 8/6/24]
    • Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade asserted that crime surged under Walz’s leadership. Kilmeade stated, “You got violent crime that surged 30% under the Governor's leadership. In the state. In Minneapolis, the police force shrunk by 40%.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 8/7/24]
    • On Twitter/X, former Fox News producer Kyle Becker wrote, “Here's the truth about Tim Walz: … Crime rates have soared on his watch.” [Twitter/X, 8/6/24]
    • On Fox News, Trump 2024 campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt cited outdated Minnesota crime statistics when arguing crime increased in the state under Walz. Leavitt claimed, “Tim Walz, like Kamala Harris, is soft on crime. He also supports the ‘defund the police’ movement. In fact, in Minnesota, violent crime has increased by 21% since he has been governor.” [Fox News, America’s Newsroom, 8/6/24]
    • Appearing on Fox News, Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) claimed crime in Minnesota is at “record highs” because of Walz. Emmer stated, “This is a left wing radical, Brian, who in just six short years has left Minnesota a liberal wasteland. Taxes have skyrocketed under his leadership. You have got violent crime at record highs and Minnesota families are worse off.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 8/7/24]
    • In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, conservative blogger Scott Johnson falsely labeled Minnesota as a “high-crime state.” [WSJ, 8/6/24]