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Right-wing media's narrative that high gas prices are “short-term” and “temporary” is undermined by reporting from major energy conference

CNBC anchor Morgan Brennan: “The growing chorus on Wall Street, including JP Morgan, Blackrock, Citadel, those are all warning that the war and ongoing oil shocks are being underpriced”

Special Programs Climate & Energy

Written by Ilana Berger

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  • While many right-wing media personalities continue to parrot claims from the Trump administration that high gas prices are a short-term consequence of the U.S. and Israel’s war in Iran, a few are starting to question that narrative.

    During S&P Global’s CERAWeek, a Houston-based energy industry conference held this year from March 23-27, attendees and other experts expressed concern over the long-term consequences of President Donald Trump’s war constraining energy supply in the Strait of Hormuz, making clear to reporters that the situation is likely worse than the market is showing. 

    Some on Fox Business agreed. On other Fox programs, however, network figures and guests dismissed concerns from the energy industry about crude oil prices, instead echoing messaging from Trump administration Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that higher gas prices are the result of a “short-term disruption” and will be “temporary.” 

  • Discussing CERAWeek, attendees and energy experts emphasized that “there is still going to be a lot more pain to come”

    • In interviews with CNBC, experts explained why future crude oil prices may actually be much higher than the market is currently predicting. Head of investment at BRI Wealth Management Toni Meadows explained to CNBC that right now, “the market thinks this current uplift in the oil price is transitory.” Katy Stoves, investment manager at Mattioli Woods, attributed this to people “expecting sort of a reduction in hostilities,” a possibility President Donald Trump has hinted at repeatedly. But, Stoves warned, “Even if we do get a resolution, I think it’s very, very important to note that there’s been a lot of energy infrastructure destroyed during this, and even if we do get some sort of ceasefire … repairing those facilities, bringing those facilities back online is going to take time — and I’m not entirely sure the market is probably pricing that in.” [CNBC, 3/26/26; Axios, 3/30/26]
       
    • Chevron CEO Mike Wirth also expressed concern to CNBC that chaos caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may not yet be “fully priced into the futures curves on oil.” According to CNBC, Wirth suggested that because “the market is trading on ‘scant information’ and ‘perception’ … The physical supply of oil is tighter than the futures contracts suggest.” [CNBC, 3/23/26]
       
    • CNBC anchor Morgan Brennan asked two industry experts whether they agreed with Wirth and “the growing chorus on Wall Street, including JP Morgan, Blackrock, Citadel” that “the war and ongoing oil shocks are being underpriced.” Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ insights at global trade analytics platform Kpler, told Brennan that Wirth “is absolutely right. And I think he’s looking at the reality of the situation versus the messaging that we’ve been hearing.” In another segment on the network, Siebert Financial Chief Investment Officer Mark Malek agreed that markets are “underpricing the real shock here from oil,” adding, “At this point I think everyone’s now recognizing that this conflict can go on for much longer. … So now I think we’re trying to factor in, hey, what would the really long-term scenario look like?” [CNBC, Worldwide Exchange, 3/24/26; CNBC, Morning Call, 3/26/26]
       
    • CNBC reporter Pippa Stevens said on Closing Bell: Overtime that on the ground at CERA, “the attitude is very much one that this has not worked through the system yet and there is still going to be a lot more pain to come.” She continued, “Even if the conflict were to end, you know, today, there is still going to be weeks if not months of backlog to try to get all of these ships in the right position, to get all of these oil fields restarted.” She added that “what I’m hearing also is that looking forward, this has meaningfully reset the floor for oil because” Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz means there could be a “geopolitical risk premium baked into the price of oil going forward.” [CNBC, Closing Bell: Overtime, 3/23/26]
       
    • Covering CERAWeek, Houston Public Media wrote, “While U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright described the war as ‘temporary,’ energy CEOs, many of them headquartered in Houston, offered a more uncertain outlook.” The article quoted conference attendee and ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance, who said, “I think we're all trying to assess what the long-term implications are and what sets the mid-cycle price coming out of this when the conflict is over with. … And clearly, I think the floor probably has to rise, and the slope of the curve is probably going to increase." [Houston Public Media, 3/24/26]

  • Some Fox Business personalities also expressed concerns about how much higher crude oil prices could get

    • Fox Business host Dagen McDowell pointed out that “even if it is resolved,” the war in Iran potentially “elevates crude prices … even more than anticipated.” As evidence, McDowell noted that “ever since the U.S. invasion of Iraq, the presence there, the inflation-adjusted price of oil has been elevated.” [Fox Business, The Big Money Show, 3/13/26]
       
    • Fox Business host Charles Payne said of gas prices on Fox & Friends, “They go up a lot faster than they come down.” “We’ve seen this movie before,” Payne said, “And, of course, they go up a lot faster than they come down, and that's another gripe people have and will have when this is concluded.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 3/26/26]
       
    • Fox Business contributor Lou Basenese on the price of oil: “I don't think we're ever going to get to 50, 60 sustainably.” Basenese continued, “You’re seeing rig counts come down, and … if you look at the inventory that's left in the U.S., it's not above break-even. The economics don't work below $60 a barrel.” [Fox News, America Reports, 3/13/26]

  • Other Fox personalities and network guests echoed Trump administration officials, insisting that surging costs for gas are “short-term” and “temporary” while downplaying the Iran war’s impacts on global oil prices

    • In the first weeks of the war, Fox began downplaying high oil and gas prices as “short-term” disruptions that would eventually end up lower than before the war began. Fox host Jesse Watters suggested on March 5 that “within just a few weeks” the price of crude oil would drop “back down to the 60s.” Fox Business host Larry Kudlow said two days later, “At the conclusion of” the Iran war, market oil prices “will probably drop into the mid-50s.” [Media Matters, 3/12/26]
       
    • In response to Trump’s March 31 claim that “all I have to do is leave Iran” and gas prices will “come tumbling down,” Fox Business anchor Cheryl Casone said, “I agree with the president.” She continued, “We’ll see what he has to say tonight. The markets will be watching at 9 p.m. Eastern Time to obviously react to whether or not we are somehow ending this conflict.” During his April 1 address, Trump vowed to “hit” Iran “extremely hard” and oil prices surged 13%. [CNBC, 4/1/26; Fox News, Fox & Friends, 4/1/26]
       
    • Discussing GDP growth and the war in Iran, Fox Business host Taylor Riggs told Fox & Friends co-host Brian Kilmeade, “It is going to take some time because you need that oil to work itself through the system,” but “oil prices do go back to where they were.” Kilmeade said, “When this ends in a couple weeks, the president believes it's going to go up like a slingshot. You know, oil will drop, and the economy will soar.” Riggs also noted, “Coming into this, we had oil at 50, 60 a barrel.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 4/1/26] 
       
    • Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo, repeating a previous comment on the network from retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, said, “What are you going to do? Go back and forth about a spike in oil prices that will likely be temporary, when in fact the larger issue here is President Trump is eliminating a would-be terrorist that has nuclear capabilities?” [Fox Business, Mornings with Maria, 3/30/26]
       
    • Casone claimed, “A lot of the analysts are saying the longer term story is going to be OK. Yes, we have worries about inflation, yes, gas prices are higher, yes, diesel prices are higher, obviously, but that's a short-term, not a long-term, situation.” [Fox Business, Mornings with Maria, 3/26/26]
       
    • Fox anchor Sandra Smith and asset manager Dan Greenhaus suggested that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was correct in his prediction that oil prices would be lower than before the war in “the medium-term.” Smith said, “Maybe that is the case,” while Greenhaus said that “to his point, in the medium-term … with Venezuela off the table and perhaps a friendlier regime in Iran, you could have a substantially lower oil price over the coming years.” [Fox News, America Reports, 3/13/26]
       
    • Former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore said on Fox Business that as the price of crude “comes down, whether that's going to be in three days or three weeks or three months when the straits are open, then we will see a resumption of oil back in the $55 to $60 range and that's very, very bullish for markets.” [Fox Business, Varney & Co., 3/23/26]
       

  • The Trump administration claims we’re going through a “temporary” and “short-term period of disruption right now,” but Trump’s war in Iran has already caused “the biggest energy disruption in history”

    • Conflicting messages from U.S. and Iranian leaders about plans to end the war have created extreme price volatility in the market. After Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had a “very good and productive conversation,” the price of crude fell 11%. Then, according to CNN, “Oil prices rose and stock markets fell Thursday, reflecting investors’ anxieties over the length of this war, even as the US signals its willingness to talk. Brent crude climbed to almost $106 a barrel.” [CNBC, 3/23/26; CNN, 3/26/26; NPR, 3/26/26; Media Matters, 3/26/26]
       
    • The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil is shipped, remains effectively closed, constraining supply and driving prices up globally. The market is generally volatile, and the price of crude oil is still trending up. Major producers bordering the Persian Gulf have been forced to curtail oil production, impacting oil and gas prices globally. Goldman Sachs recently raised its oil price forecast for 2026 and warned of higher inflation. Former Bush adviser and oil and gas consultant Bob McNally told CBS, “If Hormuz is shut for a month, one of the most important bedrock assumptions in how the global economy works will have collapsed. … We are experiencing, just as a factual matter, the biggest energy disruption in history.” [CBS News, 3/15/26, Fortune, 3/25/26]
       
    • The New York Times: “Increasing attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf could significantly hurt the already strained global supply of oil and natural gas.” E&E News summarized a new analysis from Rystad Energy, noting that “even if fighting ends today, it will take years to rebuild damaged energy infrastructure” and restore it to its previous capacity. Rystad estimates that “energy infrastructure repair and restoration costs to date could reach at least $25 billion, based on an initial assessment of impacted facilities, and are expected to rise further.” [The New York Times, 3/19/26; E&E News, 3/26/26; Rystad Energy, 3/25/26] 
       
    • At CERAWeek, Energy Secretary Chris Wright repeatedly called the situation a “short-term disruption.” On CNBC, Wright said, “We’re going through a short-term period of disruption right now, but the long-term benefits will be enormous.” During a Q&A at CERA, he said, “The Trump administration was not willing to kick that can down the road. Short-term disruption right now, but to end a multidecadal problem and lead to a world that’s much more peaceful, can be much more prosperous, and much more securely energized.” [YouTube, 3/23/26; The Hill, 3/24/26]
       
    • On Fox Business, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “We anticipated this. We knew that there could be a temporary — and I want to emphasize temporary — choke point there.” [Fox Business, Mornings with Maria, 3/19/26]