At some point, Fox News' host who cried wolf will have to explain why the apocalypse he's forecasted never came to pass. But for now, Glenn Beck appears undeterred, telling his viewers last night that “there's a 77 percent chance of a [stock market] crash within the next 30 days.” Only thing is, he said that 40 days ago.
Back in August, Glenn Beck clownishly criticized President Obama for having a Ramadan dinner in the midst of a major financial event: the stock market had met the requirements “for a Hindenburg Omen,” which “serves as a technical indicator of impending stock market crashes.” Beck explained that once the five requirements are triggered, a 5 percent drop in the market “usually takes place within the next 40 days” :
BECK: Well, we met the requirements for a Hindenburg Omen on Friday. Yes, he was having a Ramadan dinner while these things were happening.
You see, there's about five of these things that are very technical and I don't want to bore you with all the details.
Looking back at history -- the probability of all these things happening means that there is a market move greater than 5 percent to the downside after confirmed Hindenburg Omen. That means we're going to have a market go down at least 5 percent and the chances of that, with all of these things happening, is about 77 percent.
So, a market crash is not a mortal lock when the omen is in effect, but every New York Stock Exchange crash since 1985 has been preceded by the Hindenburg Omen. And the 5 percent move usually takes place within the next 40 days.
Beck further warned that it would not be “real wise” to ignore this information because the “perfect storm” that has been brewing “is going to wash ashore and there will be nothing we can do about it if we haven't already battened down the hatches.”
On August 25, Beck returned to the Hindenburg Omen and said: “When it's triggered, a market crash happens 77 percent of the time. Well, we told you that it was triggered two weeks ago. Unfortunately, it was just triggered again last Friday. And almost triggered a third time last Thursday.” Beck aired a video clip of the burning dirigible falling to earth, saying, “When the Hindenburg Omen is in play, this is what usually happens.” (According to Elizabeth MacDonald of Fox Business News, “market analysts say” that the second trigger didn't actually happen.)
Well it's now October 6, outside the 40-day window within which Beck told us a stock market “crash” would likely happen. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its “strongest September rally since 1939,” according to the Wall Street Journal. The Hindenburg Omen hasn't been triggered again since August. But inexplicably, Beck brought it back to his show last night and claimed that “we just entered the 30 day period” :
BECK: My batting average is pretty good. It's not perfect but it's pretty good. When I say things - trouble is coming. It's not just me. It's the Wall Street Journal. I just showed you the chart that shows, you know, how the Dow is mirroring the 1930s. I mean, I could quote to you chapter and verse how we're doing exactly the same thing that Wilson did that led to nightmares and also FDR, which made it the Great Depression here.
But it's also things like the Hindenburg omen. We talked about it on this program and I know it was talked about on CNBC and other business networks like Fox Business Channel. It's kind of a complex financial thing but five things have to happen for it to trigger and when it does, there's a 77 percent chance of a crash within the next 30 days. Well we just entered the 30 day period. By the way, the Hindenberg Omen has happened twice.
Beck claimed that once the requirements are met “there's a 77 percent chance of a crash within the next 30 days.” In fact, as the Wall Street Journal reported, “significant stock-market declines have followed the indicator just 25% of the time.” The Journal also stated that Barry Ritholtz, chief executive of Fusion IQ calls the Hindenburg Omen "'recession porn,' contending that investors are attracted to negative commentary and conspiracy theories during skittish markets."
Why would Beck want his followers to have an outsized fear of an impending market crash? It's not clear. But on the show last night, Beck asked his viewers if they have done anything to prepare since he first told them about the Hindenberg Omen. He mentioned that the rich are “preparing” by purchasing “gold by the ton” and said: “there's no excuse for you saying you didn't have access to that information anymore.”
From the October 5 edition of Fox News' Glenn Beck: