A Fox graphic highlighting the falling inflation rate

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MAGA media praise November inflation report that economists caution is a mirage

Economists point out that the government shutdown heavily distorted the price data used in the report

Written by Zachary Pleat

Published

Even as multiple economists were explaining that the November 2025 Consumer Price Index inflation report was distorted due to the recent government shutdown, MAGA media figures were celebrating the slightly lower than expected annualized inflation reading of 2.7%. Trump sycophants, especially on Fox, praised the report, congratulated President Donald Trump, and suggested that it vindicated his economic policies that contributed to a stumbling economy this year. (Ironically, the 2.7% inflation rate being celebrated by the president’s media allies is virtually identical to the inflation rate registered in November 2024, when coverage of high and persistent inflation dominated the news nationwide and helped carry Trump to victory.) 

More than a week before the new CPI report, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the upcoming numbers “may be distorted … because data was not collected in October and half of November,” concluding, “We're going to have to look at it carefully and with a somewhat skeptical eye.”

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  • Economists point out major flaws in the November CPI report, urge “a big grain of salt” when reading it

    • University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers: “We can’t be sure of” the November inflation report “given shutdown-related distortions to data collection.” Wolfers added in another post that “this report may understate inflation a bit. Here's why: Usually the BLS collects prices all through November. But the shutdown kept it closed for the first half of November. So more prices than usual were collected in the middle of ‘Black Friday’ sales.” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25, 12/18/25]
    • New Century Advisors chief economist Claudia Sahm: “It is extremely important to take this release with a big grain of salt.” Sahm continued: “The data collection — the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics constructs the CPI — it was really disrupted by having a month off in October. And so I think we’re just going to have to see more data next Wednesday before we really start running with this lower number.” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25]
    • Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Lindsay Rosner: “The sampling for November specifically was focused around the timing of Black Friday. We all know how good the sales were.” Rosner continued: “And so when you look at those numbers, yes, it’s going to look like prices were lower.” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25]
    • Inflation Insights founder Omair Sharif, as quoted by Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent Nick Timiraos: “This is totally inexcusable. The BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for October. I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06% and OER at 0.135% is assuming October was zero. There is just no world in which this was a good idea, but here we are.” Sharif added in his own post: “Major issue was zeroing out rent/OER in Oct. That will artificially lower YoY rates until Apr (assuming no BLS adjustments). Other issue is weaker prints for a lot of core goods ex-autos due to price collection only in 2H Nov so more discounts/sale px. That should bounce in Dec.” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25, 12/18/25]
    • Harvard economist Jason Furman echoed Sharif’s criticism of the November CPI report: “It appear that BLS made a big judgment error in its shelter calculation (effectively assuming 0 in October), leading to inflation understated.” In another post, Furman stated that the CPI report should be partially discounted “due to shutdown-induced price distortions,” later elaborating: “I would increase the discount. It seems like the shelter numbers might have been genuinely garbage.” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25, 12/18/25, 12/18/25]
    • Stripe chief economist Ernie Tedeschi: “BLS assumed the index was unchanged for October, when in reality it almost certainly grew.” In a series of posts responding to questions raised by Bloomberg Odd Lots co-host Joe Weisenthal and Timiraos, Tedeschi explained the data errors accumulated during the government shutdown “will affect the year-on-year inflation calculation until at least April when the 6-month rental sample rotates out.” He claimed “the index level should readjust” next April, but in the meantime “October Rent/OER assumption will continue lower YY CPI” in every monthly inflation report. [Twitter/X, 12/18/25, 12/18/25, 12/18/25]
    • RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas: “This was one flawed CPI report.” He added: “Because of the flawed report, it is better to state forthrightly that we do not have sufficient sense of price movements over the past two months.” [Fortune, 12/18/25]
    • Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long cautioned on the November CPI report: “It's hard to read too much into the data given how much the shutdown impacted data collection.” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25]
    • Schwab Center for Financial Research chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders: The November CPI report is “somewhat literally … sort of unbelievable in the sense that there was no data collection the entire month of October and 12 days into November. So a much higher share of the components were estimated.” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25]
    • KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk on the November CPI report: “We should take the data with a grain of salt.” Swonk elaborated: “Data collection didn’t begin until Nov 14, while much of data for October was ‘carried forward’ at September levels. This was also true for imputation in November. That tends to zero out a change of up or down in any given data point within the series.” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25]

  • Yet MAGA media celebrated the report and even congratulated Trump for prices continuing to increase

    • Mornings with Maria panel’s reaction to the November CPI report: “Amazing,” “great for America,” “well done to Donald Trump.” [Fox Business, Mornings with Maria, 12/18/25]
    • Newsmax guest Tim Phillips: “The numbers are pretty darn solid, around 2.7% inflation. They beat expectations.” Phillips added: “This economy I do believe is poised” to take off in 2026. [Newsmax, The National Report, 12/18/25]
    • Fox Business guest Adam Johnson: The November CPI report is “manna from heaven” and “fantastic news.” Fox Business’ Lauren Simonetti additionally called the report “a good one … much less than the estimate.” She added: “There are hopes that the Fed will continue to cut rate, because right now, looking at this number, these numbers, inflation is not quite a problem.” [Fox Business, Varney & Co., 12/18/25]
    • On Varney & Co., National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said the November CPI report “was just an absolute blockbuster report.” He added: “This is just an astonishingly good CPI report.” [Fox Business, Varney & Co., 12/18/25]
    • Fox host Harris Faulkner: “Look at the flip side of all of their [Democrats’] antics and everything else; The president’s economy holding strong. Inflation is, in fact, coming down.” [Fox News, The Faulkner Focus, 12/18/25]
    • Townhall columnist Kurt Schlichter: “Things are good out there, particular[ly] if you’re established. … I saw those great inflation numbers today. I looked at my stocks. I’m doing fine.” Schlichter added on social media: “This morning’s great inflation numbers must be really upsetting” to Trump critics. [Newsmax, Newsline, 12/18/25; Twitter/X, 12/18/25]
    • Fox Business host Dagen McDowell: “Come on, people, 2.7% inflation. Who doesn’t love that?” Fox Business host Charles Payne commented: “This morning’s numbers were so amazing.” Payne also dismissed criticism over how the BLS calculated the November inflation rate. The panel additionally gloated over how the number is lower than all economic forecasters predicted. [Fox Business, The Big Money Show, 12/18/25]
    • Fox anchor Sandra Smith: The November CPI report “looked pretty good” and “would back up the president’s claims that prices are cooling, they’re coming down. Inflation is cooling.” Fox contributor Ari Fleischer said: “That is the proof in the pudding [of] what the president has said last night about a boom is coming true.” [Fox News, America Reports, 12/18/25]
    • Fox anchor John Roberts: “This was a surprise, 2.7% in November was the inflation rate. That's really got to be … a finger in the eye to all of the president's critics who have said, oh, he hasn't done anything to curb inflation.” [Fox News, America Reports, 12/18/25]
    • Media Research Center: “CNN and CNBC were shocked at November inflation coming in at 2.7%. … Even the leftist media couldn't figure out how to spin this great news!” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25]
    • Podcaster Benny Johnson: “Inflation hit its lowest level in November since March 2021. … The Golden Age. 2026 is looking great.” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25]
    • Townhall: “BOOM: The experts got it WRONG AGAIN! President Trump is bringing inflation DOWN!” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25]
    • Conservative Substack writer @amuse: “TRUMP BOOM: November CPI stunned markets with inflation far below forecasts. Headline at 2.7%, core at 2.6%, both crushing expectations. Trump’s policies are delivering results the media refuses to admit.” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25]
    • Washington Examiner columnist Tiana Lowe Doescher: “Core inflation fell to 2.6% annually in November, the lowest level since the start of the Biden administration — a major victory for President Trump in combatting the affordability issue that remains voters’ top concern.” [Twitter/X, 12/18/25]