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Fox misleadingly claims Venezuelan oil will lower gas prices in the US even while electricity rates continue to rise

Special Programs Climate & Energy

Written by Allison Fisher

Research contributions from Zachary Pleat

Published

Fox News has repeatedly framed President Donald Trump’s escalating military action against Venezuela around how it will impact prices of energy and gas for Americans, with Sunday Briefing anchor Peter Doocy asking Energy Secretary Chris Wright: “So how long until all of this oil in Venezuela makes a dent in the cost of a gallon of gas here at home?” Other Fox personalities assured their audience that “the opportunity for lower energy prices in the United States is now present.”

But at least one guest disagreed. Wall Street Journal columnist Mary O’Grady pointed out on Fox Business that “oil is at a pretty low price right now below $60 a barrel. There is not a need for boosting supply through military intervention — that could not be a good reason to have gone into Venezuela. … I do not really understand what he [Trump] is doing.”

Indeed, the U.S. is already the world’s largest producer of oil, and experts suggest that the impact of Venezuelan crude on “U.S. gasoline prices may ultimately be limited” while doing nothing to address rising electricity rates, which are up 13% since Trump took office. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects “residential prices rising roughly almost 4% this year and another nearly 3% in 2027.” Yet Trump has suggested that American taxpayers will subsidize extraction of Venezuelan oil while blocking investment in clean and affordable energy here in the U.S. 

  • Fox personalities misleadingly claim that Venezuelan oil will lower fuel and energy prices in the US

    • Key Trump trade adviser and Project 2025 contributor Peter Navarro told Fox Business “the purchase of Venezuelan heavy crude oil will help reduce the price of gasoline and diesel here.” Navarro: “If you go over to energy, look — Biden, $75 a barrel, we are down toward 50. And I've got a piece coming out on Fox Business tomorrow morning that explains why the purchase of Venezuelan heavy crude oil will help reduce the price of gasoline and diesel here. Why? Because our refineries are all custom-built based on the type of oil they were expecting to use. When fracking came along and upset the balance because fracking has got more light crude. So by using heavier crude mixed in with a lighter crude, that is going to help things.” The argument fails to mention that Venezuelan oil was replaced in those U.S. refineries years ago by heavy crude oil from Canada, and as one energy expert noted, “replacing Canadian crude oil with oil from Venezuela would result in a ‘nearly $1 trillion bill.’” [Fox News, Making Money with Charles Payne, 1/14/26; Fox Business, Kudlow, 1/9/26; Media Matters, 1/6/26]
    • Fox host Griff Jenkins on Fox & Friends repeated Wright’s claim that Trump’s action against Venezuela “is going to benefit the American people and the most visible way and tangible way will be with lower gas prices.” Jenkins: “If the Trump administration is able to successfully do this — yesterday on this show I interviewed Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and he said this, ultimately, is going to benefit the American people and the most visible way and tangible way will be with lower gas prices. And that's what this White House has looked at, ways to make life better for the American people.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 1/10/26]
    • Fox host Jesse Watters on The Five: “President Trump has a slick plan to lower gas prices before the midterms — 47 sitting down with some Big Oil executives at the White House talking about how fast we can drill, baby, drill and drive investment into Venezuela.” Below a clip of Trump speaking from the White House, Fox ran the chyron “Trump: ‘U.S. Will Get Even Lower Energy Prices.’” [Fox News, The Five, 1/10/26]
    • Fox anchor Sandra Smith on The Five said Trump’s talks with industry executives about taking Venezuela’s oil “makes America better” and “will eventually lead to lower prices.” Smith: “Gas is down 10% since Trump took office. Oil prices are now down 28% since Donald Trump took office. This makes America better. This helps us transport goods easier. This will eventually lead to lower prices and it already is contributing to lower inflation.” [Fox News, The Five, 1/10/26]
    • Regular Fox guest and former Trump economic adviser Steve Moore on America Reports: “I think this is good news for consumers, good news for affordability, and good news for the people of Venezuela.” Moore said, “I agree with you that for the oil producers, the people in the room, they're not too happy about the fact that the world oil price is probably going to dip below $50 a barrel, but it's true that for manufacturers, for stores, for farmers, a low gas price, low energy price is a good thing. … I think this is good news for consumers, good news for affordability, and good news for the people of Venezuela. … The irony here is that, you know, people are complaining about affordability. Used to be the measure, the metric, for affordability, what do you pay for gas at the gas pump? I think you're going to see gas prices — right now I think nationally they're about $2.79 a gallon.” [Fox News, America Reports, 1/9/26]
    • Fox Business reporter Darren Botelho on Varney & Co.: “The president is expecting to meet with those oil companies, and they're trying to get those companies to drill in Venezuela and lower gas prices here at home.” He added, “And here's why this matters to you at home. Right now, like I said, crude is sitting at around $57 a barrel. They’re trying to bring down oil prices here at home, and the president believes by opening up Venezuela, he can drive that price down to $50.” [Fox Business, Vaney & Co., 1/9/26]
    • Fox Business contributor Phil Flynn said controlling Venezuela’s oil “is going to bring down gasoline prices for America.” Fox host Griff Jenkins responded: “Our viewers just heard the important part there, bringing prices down here.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 1/8/26]
    • Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo congratulated Trump for “putting more oil on the global market” to lower oil prices. Bartiromo added: “That also goes directly at his approach on affordability for the domestic economy.” Guest Lee Carter agreed, saying there are “benefits that are coming to the American people. And the affordability crisis is real. If they start seeing how this translates to prices in their pocketbooks, this is going to be a real win for the president.” [Fox Business, Mornings with Maria, 1/7/26]
    • Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum: Because of Trump’s ouster of Maduro, “the opportunity for lower energy prices in the United States is now present.” MacCallum argued to Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) that he should have supported the ouster of Maduro if Trump explained that it could lead to “lower oil prices and gas prices here in the United States.” [Fox News, America Reports, 1/6/26]
    • Fox Business correspondent Edward Lawrence: Analysts say “the ousting of Nicolás Maduro” could “be good for gas prices in the U.S. long-term.” He continued: “If you add a steady supply of Venezuelan oil to the global market, it reduces oil prices per barrel. And that reduces gas prices in the United States.” [Fox News, America Reports, 1/5/26]
    • Jesse Watters: “Once American companies produce what's rightfully theirs, energy prices go even lower, and so does inflation.” Watters continued: “It also means the Chinese will be buying the oil from us. The Iranians, they lose a customer, and low prices starve Putin's war machine in Ukraine. The American and Venezuelan people can both make money now, and we don't have to worry about a failed narco state on our doorstep.” [Fox News, Jesse Watters Primetime, 1/5/26]
    • Martha MacCallum: Trump is looking at Venezuela “holistically, because he is concerned about the U.S. economy. … Lower energy prices will help to bring down inflation and every other cost for Americans across the country. And that is clearly part of his goal here.” [Fox News, America Reports, 1/5/26]
    • Fox Business correspondent Lauren Simonetti: If U.S. companies extract Venezuela’s oil, it will be “great for inflation, and affordability, and drivers, and businesses.” [Fox Business, Varney & Co., 1/5/26]

  • Trump’s plan to seize Venezuelan oil won’t lower household energy prices and will have only limited impact on gas prices

  • There is no guarantee that output from Venezuela’s oil fields will radically increase any time soon

    • Politico: The U.S. oil industry is “leery” about investing in Venezuela's decaying oil infrastructure. According to Politico, “People in the industry said the administration’s message has left them still leery about the difficulty of rebuilding decayed oil fields in a country where it’s not even clear who will lead the country for the foreseeable future.” One industry executive told Politico: “In preparation for regime change, there had been engagement. But it’s been sporadic and relatively flatly received by the industry,” this person said. ‘It feels very much a shoot-ready-aim exercise.” [Politico, 1/3/26]
    • Bloomberg reported that rebuilding Venezuelan oil fields would cost $100 billion over 10 years. From the article: “Rebuilding it enough to lift Venezuela’s output back to its peak levels of the 1970s would require companies to invest about $10 billion per year over the next decade.” [Bloomberg, 1/4/26]
    • The New York Times noted that low oil prices mean less incentive for oil companies to invest in production. The Times reported: “The potential prize is huge — Venezuela boasts the largest oil reserves in the world — but so are the risks, and U.S. energy companies like Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips have been burned in Venezuela before. Oil prices are also low, having fallen more than 20 percent in the past year, making it harder for companies to justify new spending.” [The New York Times, 1/5/26]

    Fox is touting a victory over a problem that doesn’t exist; there is currently an oversupply of oil and decreased demand, which are helping keep gas prices low

    • Oil expert Patrick De Haan told CBS News in December 2025 that increased production from OPEC and strong domestic supply combined with “softer seasonal fuel demand” are responsible for low gas prices. Regarding the impact of Venezuela on prices, he posted on Bluesky: “There is absolutely no firm evidence even under the best possible outcome in VZ that global gas prices will decline to decade level lows. it's extremely unlikely that developments in VZ have any major impact on US gas prices in 2026.” [CBS News, 12/2/25; Bluesky, 1/4/26]
    • American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers told Fox Business: “We're dealing with a completely different oil market than we were in 2007. … Remember, a lot of the Venezuelan oil in 2007 was coming to the United States but we've replaced that oil since then.” Sommers said, “I'll remind you that both Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips had their assets appropriated over 20 years ago and the oil industry has completely diminished in the country of Venezuela. In that same period of time, the United States went from producing 5 million barrels a day in 2007 to over 13 million barrels a day today, and so we're dealing with a completely different oil market than we were in 2007. … Remember, a lot of the Venezuelan oil in 2007 was coming to the United States but we've replaced that oil since then.” [Fox Business, Kudlow, 1/9/26]

    Electricity prices are up 13% since Trump took office, however, and an increase in crude oil will not address that energy crisis in the US

    • American household electricity prices have increased by 13% under Trump. Several factors, including the cost of equipment updates in response to extreme weather events and an increase in demand for electricity from AI data centers, are contributing to the rate hikes. In some cases, grid operators have reportedly been slow to connect new energy projects to the rest of the power grid, with many renewable and storage projects waiting in interconnection queues. [ABC News, 12/15/25; Federation of American Scientists, 8/18/25; International Energy Agency, 4/10/25; New Jersey Policy Perspective, 3/29/25; Heatmap, 7/10/25]
    • Petroleum plays a negligent role in producing electricity in the U.S., accounting for only 0.4% of generation in 2023. [U.S. Energy Information Administration, accessed, 1/14/26]

    Trump’s policies are exacerbating rising electricity prices by blocking and rolling back support for clean and affordable energy

    • The New York Times editorial board explained that Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will also likely drive up electricity prices. The Times pointed to an analysis from the consulting firm National Economic Research Associates, which found that the bill’s “repeal of the tax credits alone may push electricity prices almost 10 percent higher than they would be otherwise by 2029.” [The New York Times, 10/9/25]
    • A Politico analysis found that “states that embrace renewable energy are far more likely to save money for electricity consumers than those relying on fossil fuels or nuclear power,” noting that the findings “undermine one of the Trump administration’s main justifications for its aggressive rollback of federal clean energy policies.” Looking at data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Politico found that most states that get a higher than average percentage of their electricity from renewable sources “had below-average electricity prices in June” and that “states that have been the quickest to add wind and solar generation to the grid have had lower power prices.” [Politico, 10/7/25]
    • The Rhodium Group research firm predicts that “new clean capacity additions to the grid will shrink by 57-62% from 2025 through 2035,” tightening energy supply as demand grows. Since Trump took office, 64,000 renewable energy jobs have been cut or paused as of August 2025. In December, Trump canceled all offshore wind projects that were already under construction, robbing the grid of much needed energy and “impact[ing] billions of dollars in investments.” [The Rhodium Group, 7/11/25; The Guardian, 8/19/25; CNN, 12/12/25]
    • Experts also say that Trump’s tariffs will make the grid less reliable by making batteries more expensive. According to energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, if Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports could mean that “the cost of a utility scale solar facility in the US will be 54% more expensive than in Europe and 85% more expensive than a new solar plant built in China.” [Canary Media, 4/7/25; Wood Mackenzie, 6/2/25]