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Fox figures repeatedly claimed the economy would grow at a 5% pace thanks to Trump. It actually grew just 2% in the first quarter of 2026.

Fox has spent most of Trump's second term promising viewers that economic revival is just around the corner

Written by Zachary Pleat

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Fox personalities spent the first quarter of 2026 repeatedly telling viewers that the economy was growing robustly or predicting growth at up to a 5% annualized rate thanks to President Donald Trump’s purported improvements to the American economy during his second term. According to the April 30 advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross domestic product growth for the first quarter of 2026 came in at just 2% — yet Fox’s initial reaction was to portray this as “fairly strong” economic growth.

Fox figures set similar expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025, predicting anywhere from 3% to 5% growth; instead, the advance estimate for that quarter was just 1.4% and has since been revised downward to a mere 0.5%. But even before the final economic growth figures for 2025 were reported, Fox promised that 2026 was “going to be amazing” after the economy fell flat in 2025.

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  • Fox characterizes economic growth of 2% as “fairly strong,” but economists call it “fragile”

    • Fox Business anchor Cheryl Casone: “We came in​ with a​ read​ of 2%. The estimate was for 2.3% for first quarter GDP. … Pretty fairly strong numbers here for the U.S. economy.” Anchor Maria Bartiromo agreed that “it’s pretty much in line with expectations,” saying, “The growth story is very much intact.” [Fox Business, Mornings with Maria, 4/30/26]
    • Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi: “The economy is growing, but it is fragile growth. Looking through the vagaries of the quarterly data, real GDP is growing at a 2% pace. Growth, yes, but less than the economy’s potential growth rate, and not sufficient to support any meaningful job growth.” In follow-up posts, Zandi added: “At the start of the year, GDP was set to get a boost from deficit-financed fiscal stimulus and more Fed rate cuts. Job growth would resume, and unemployment would stabilize. Hard to see this happening now.” He further explained, “Even if the Iran War winds down and oil prices recede quickly, the fallout will ensure there is no GDP pickup or job growth this year. Unemployment will rise further, and already considerable recession risks will worsen.” [Bluesky, 4/26/26, 4/26/26, 4/26/26]
    • Center for Economic and Policy Research cofounder Dean Baker: “Q1 GDP growth may hit 2 percent, but the rebound is fragile because it depends on temporary boosts rather than broad-based economic strength.” Baker added: “The overall growth rate for the quarter will be close to 2.0 percent, which ordinarily would be considered fine. However, with most areas of consumer spending showing little or no growth, the picture does not seem well-balanced. The sharp rise in spending on health care, which is the driving force in growth, is likely viewed by most consumers as a burden.” [Center for Economic and Policy Research, 4/28/26]
    • CNBC: “First-quarter growth disappointed at 2%.” CNBC explained why the GDP number is disappointing: “In other economic news Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product grew at a 2% seasonally adjusted annualized pace in the first quarter, up from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 but lower than the 2.2% estimate. The modest growth rate came despite a seeming surge in spending on artificial intelligence and what should have been a boost from the end of last year’s government shutdown.” [CNBC, 4/30/26]

  • Yet Fox figures repeatedly claimed the U.S. economy would grow or is growing at up to 5%

    • Fox Business host Dagen McDowell, citing a statement from NEC Director Kevin Hassett predicting 4-5% economic growth: “There is a great deal to be optimistic about.” [Fox Business, The Bottom Line, 4/9/26]
    • Fox Business anchor Geri Willis: “I will point out that the president’s economic adviser is saying economic growth of 4-5% this year. That is not just a good year, that is a fantastic year. That is firing on all cylinders.” [Fox Business, The Big Money Show, 4/9/26]
    • Fox Business host Larry Kudlow: “I believe that postwar American growth, the potential is about 5%. … The Jay Powell Fed only sees a measly 2% economic growth. … It’s always garbage in and garbage out.” [Fox Business, Kudlow Weekend, 3/21/26]
    • Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo: “When you look at the macro story, economic growth … last quarter was close to 5%.” In fact, GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 was 0.5%, or just one-tenth of what Bartiromo claimed. [Fox Business, Mornings with Maria, 2/27/26; Bureau of Economic Analysis, 4/9/26]
    • Kudlow: “I think the economy is growing at 4 to 5%, because we're in the middle of a humongous business boom. That’s my take. I will accept no less than 4-5%.” Kudlow added, “The fourth quarter numbers” from last year “are completely phony, only 1.4%.” [Fox Business, Kudlow, 2/24/26]
    • Kudlow: “I think the 2026 economy … can grow by 5%.” [Fox Business, Kudlow, 2/19/26]
    • Fox Business host Elizabeth MacDonald: “Democrats are now scrambling on midterm messaging as Trump gets low inflation, more than 4% GDP growth, heading to 5%.” [Fox Business, The Evening Edit, 2/13/26]
    • Kudlow: “Why can’t you get 5 or 6 or 7% growth for some quarters, for a year?” Economist and frequent Fox Business guest Stephen Moore chimed in, “We’re capable of growing a lot faster.” [Fox Business, Kudlow, 2/11/26]
    • Fox Business host Taylor Riggs: “I am really hopeful that the first and second quarter, things look great. I mean, in terms of GDP growth, we’re looking at 3, 4, 5%.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 2/9/26]
    • Kudlow: “On the economy, we’re growing at 4 to 5%. We just hit 50,000 plus on the Dow.” [Fox Business, Kudlow, 2/6/26]
    • Moore: “We have the best economy in the industrialized world with 5% growth.” [Fox Business, The Bottom Line, 2/5/26]
    • Kudlow asked former Trump campaign adviser Jason Miller: “What's missing from the economic growth message when the numbers, the data themselves, are showing 4 to 5% economic growth, which is really quite remarkable?” [Fox Business, Kudlow, 2/5/26]
    • MacDonald: “GDP growth is now surpassing 4%, moving to 5%. That's according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model.” [Fox Business, The Evening Edit, 2/3/26]
    • Willis: “The whole 5% number in terms of growth. … Why is this happening? Because Donald Trump is putting in place policies that is making growth likely.” Willis added: “I went back and looked at the number of times the U.S. economy since World War II has experienced 5% or better growth — only 33 times. Only five quarters since 1984. This is a rarity.” [Fox Business, The Big Money Show, 2/2/26]
    • Fox Business anchor David Asman: “The economy is growing at least at 4.5%, probably as much as 5% right now.” [Fox News, America’s Newsroom, 2/2/26]
    • Kudlow: “The economy is growing at 4 or 5%, it’s a phenomenal story.” [Fox Business, The Big Money Show, 1/29/26]
    • Asman: “The bottom line is that the economy is growing at great guns right now, and we can’t forget, we haven’t been growing like this since the Reagan era, when we were growing at 4 and 5 and sometimes even 7%.” [Fox News, Special Report, 1/27/26]
    • Asman: “The economic numbers are great. We've got a 5% growth rate right now.” Asman continued: “As our friend Larry Kudlow would say — he was one of the first people, when he first said it could grow at 5%, people were saying, you're crazy." [Fox News, America Reports, 1/27/26]
    • Kudlow: “You could easily have prints of 5% GDP growth. … Not every quarter, not every year.” He added: “Here’s what you won’t get: The Federal Reserve’s 1.8%. Take that off the board.” [Fox Business, Kudlow, 1/6/26]