STEVE DEACE (HOST): We're talking really challenging the conventional wisdoms that we're selling each other right now just to make sure we're not getting high on our own supply here. All right. So, Kip Herriage has about 40,000 followers on Twitter. He is the managing partner and founder and publisher of Vertical Research Advisory, which is a top performing investment and economic research firm. He hosts the American Capitalist podcast and he follows me on Twitter so he can't be all bad. OK? Here is an analysis of the electorate that he posted over the weekend as a summation of what he is telling his clients about the upcoming election cycle. And in light of Moody's downgrading the US now as a negative economic outlook, obviously Kip's clients would care greatly about the next election because it had -- could have great impact on the economic outlook.
As a lifelong independent with greater than 10,000 subscribers to our investment and economic letters, I have open lines of communications with Republicans, Democrats, and independents throughout the country. Here's what I am finding. Trump's core base is still with him. They're even more aggressively in his corner than before, and they'll attack you hard when you raise counterpoints or discuss Ron DeSantis or RFK JR. It's an extremely loyal group. I'm also finding that Trump's core base is smaller than before. I think maybe quite a bit so. The reasons for this are many, but based on what we hear, it's the combination of Trump's mistakes from his handling of the plandemic, lockdowns, OWS, Fauci, Birx, the rush -- that's Operation Warp Speed, Fauci, Birx and the rushed creation of the jabs. The fact he added $8 trillion in debt and supported anti-Second Amendment legislation stands out loudly to true conservatives. And we hear this often, too, his horrible staffing decisions, along with people close to him today, like Ronna, Lindsay and Loomer, raise serious questions about who this version of Trump is, and it's not the 2016 Trump.
The Republican Party has been gutted. While some think that's a good thing in the interim, they're losing elections. It's a repeating pattern of losing and people dislike the way he turns and others so quickly, followed by the childish name calling. Trump's support seems to have almost disappeared among independents and women. He's not just disliked with those groups, there's now a strong and vocal anti-Trump vibe, hearing more and more people talk about his trials and the fact that it's likely he'll be a convicted felon at some point next year. While acknowledged as kangaroo courts, the legitimate question is will Americans elect a convicted felon? It's a question that Republican voters should consider. Bottom line, based on our conversations and digital communications, it's hard to take these polls seriously. I'd probably put Trump up by ten, maybe less. Iowa will be here soon enough. We'll see how our subscribers match the mood of the actual voters.