Fox News' Brit Hume claimed that the stimulus “manifestly failed” to “get the unemployment rate down.” This claim flies in the face of the economic consensus, as economists believe the stimulus raised GDP and increased employment and “substantial[ly]” boosted GDP.
Hume claims that the stimulus “manifestly failed”
Hume: Stimulus “manifestly failed” to “get the unemployment rate down.” On the September 26 edition of Fox News Sunday, Brit Hume claimed that instead of getting “something done about the economy” as “the public wanted,” Obama “allow[ed] Congress to enact this whopping stimulus bill, which was completely unfocused and promiscuous in its spending, that has manifestly failed, A, to end the rescission, which ended in June of 2009, and B, to get the unemployment rate down.”
CEA: ARRA raised employment “by between 2.5 and 3.6 million.” In its fourth quarterly report on the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act [ARRA] of 2009, the White House's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) stated that “as of the second quarter of 2010, the ARRA has raised employment relative to what it otherwise would have been by between 2.5 and 3.6 million. These estimates are broadly consistent with the direct recipient reporting data available for 2010:Q1.”
CBO estimates stimulus increased employment by up to 3.3 million jobs. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated in August that as of the second quarter of 2010, the stimulus "[i]ncreased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million."
IHS/Global Insight estimates job impact of 1.7 million by early 2010. PolitiFact.com stated on February 17 that "[u]sing updated estimates provided to PolitiFact, IHS/Global Insight estimates that 1.7 million jobs will be created or saved by the first quarter of 2010." The CEA report also cites this estimate from IHS/Global Insight.
Moody's economy.com estimated 1.9 million additional jobs by early 2010. The PolitiFact post further stated that "[u]sing updated estimates provided to PolitiFact ... Moody's economy.com estimated that 1.9 million jobs will be created or saved" by the first quarter of 2010. The CEA report also cited this estimate from Moody's economy.com.
Macroeconomic Advisers estimated 1.8million additional jobs by early 2010. The CEA report stated that Macroeconomic Advisers estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 1.8 million as of the second quarter of 2010, citing an analysis provided to CEA.
Administration estimated stimulus would increase employment by between 3.3 and 4.1 million jobs by the end of 2010. In a January 9, 2009, report on the job impact of a “prototypical” stimulus package “in the range that the President-Elect has discussed,” Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein estimated that a stimulus package would raise employment by between “3.3 to 4.1 million jobs” by the end of 2010. The report clearly notes that this estimate is calculated “relative to the no-stimulus baseline.”
Economists: “The effects of the fiscal stimulus” on economy “appear very substantial”
Moody's study shows “the effects of the fiscal stimulus alone appear very substantial, raising 2010 real GDP by about 3.4%.” A recent study by Alan Blinder, the president of Bill Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers, and Mark Zandi, the co-founder of Moody's Economy.com, simulated the “macroeconomic effects of the government's total policy response” to the recent economic downturn and found that “the effects of the fiscal stimulus alone appear very substantial, raising 2010 real GDP by about 3.4%, holding the unemployment rate about 1½ percentage points lower, and adding almost 2.7 million jobs to U.S. payrolls.”
Wall Street Journal: 70 percent of economists surveyed said stimulus helped. The Wall Street Journal reported on March 12 that 38 of the 54 economists it surveyed “said the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act boosted growth and mitigated job losses, while six said the legislation had a net negative effect.”
ABC News: Most on panel of economists “think the economy would be worse” without the stimulus. ABC News reported on February 18 that “most” of the economists on its panel “think the economy would be worse today without the big aid package, which totaled $787 billion and was signed into law by President Obama on Feb. 17, 2009.”
NABE: 83 percent say stimulus raised GDP. A February survey of 203 members of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) found that, "[e]ighty-three percent believe that GDP is currently higher than it would have been without the 2009 stimulus package (ARRA)."