Fox used California's climate policies to deflect from gas price spike driven by Trump’s war on Iran

Media Matters / Andrea Austria

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Fox promised oil and gas prices would quickly drop once US attacks on Iran ended. Analysts say prices will be elevated well into next year.

Written by Zachary Pleat

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Analyses from consulting firms, economists, and at least one government agency are contradicting rosy promises by Fox News personalities that oil and gasoline prices would quickly drop toward pre-war levels once U.S. attacks on Iran ceased. Days before President Donald Trump launched his war on Iran at the end of February, the average national gas price was below $3 per gallon and the U.S. benchmark for crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) was hovering in the mid-$60s per barrel. Prices for both have significantly spiked since hostilities began and are expected to remain elevated for months or even years, according to some analyses.

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  • Trump’s shaky ceasefire with Iran has yet to lead to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz

    • President Donald Trump announced he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” Trump had threatened to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure and warned: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” [Stars and Stripes, 4/7/26]
    • NBC News: “Iran warns of 'strong responses' as Israel's attacks on Lebanon threaten ceasefire.” NBC News reported that “the truce between the United States and Iran was in doubt this morning following Israel's deadly new attacks on Lebanon. Iran said the strikes, which killed hundreds, were a ‘grave violation’ of the deal and warned of ‘strong responses.’ America and Israel insisted Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire, though mediator Pakistan says it was.” [NBC News, 4/9/26]
    • CNBC: “The Strait of Hormuz is not open as Iran controls access after ceasefire, UAE oil CEO says.” CNBC reported that according to freight analysts, “ship traffic through the strait has not picked up since the ceasefire took effect” and “remains at the slow trickle that has been observed during most of the war.” [CNBC, 4/9/26]

  • Multiple analyses project that oil and gas prices will remain elevated into 2027 and beyond

    • WSJ: “The Energy Information Administration raised its forecasts for crude oil prices in 2026 as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz shuts in production in the Middle East and wipes out its expected global inventory builds.” The Wall Street Journal reported: “In its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA raised its 2026 forecast for Brent crude to $96 a barrel from $79 a barrel previously. It now expects U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude to average $87 a barrel, up from $74 a barrel in the March outlook.” The Journal further reported that the EIA “sees Brent peaking at an average $115 a barrel in the second quarter, falling below $90 in the fourth quarter, and averaging $76 a barrel in 2027.” This EIA analysis “assume[s] the conflict does not persist past April and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes.” [The Wall Street Journal, 4/7/26]
    • CBC: “Oil and fuel prices to remain high throughout the year.” The CBC reported: “The ongoing war between Iran and the U.S. is expected to keep oil prices high for the remainder of the year, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices too. North American oil prices are anticipated to average $85 US per barrel in 2026, according to a new report released Wednesday from Deloitte Canada, compared to averaging just $67 in 2025.” [CBC, 4/8/26]
    • Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CBS News: “I don't think there is any going back to sub-$3 gallon for a while. Prices go up like a rocket, and they come down like a feather.” The article added that Zandi “predicts that if oil prices stabilize at around $90 per barrel over the next few weeks, gas will continue to retreat and settle around $3.75 a gallon. By the end of the year, he expects oil to drop to around $80 a barrel and for U.S. gas prices to hover around $3.50 a gallon.” [CBS News, 4/9/26]
    • American Century Investments’ David Byrns told Axios: “Even if the strait fully reopened right now, oil prices will still be 20% higher in coming years than before the war.” [Axios, 4/9/26]
    • NY Times: “Bringing the Gulf’s energy system back to something akin to normal will take months.” The New York Times reported that some of the damage to the Gulf’s fossil fuel operations “is expected to take years to repair.” [The New York Times, 4/8/26]

  • Yet Fox personalities claimed oil and gas prices would quickly return to normal after hostilities ceased

    • Fox host Jesse Watters: “There's going to be some short-term pain for American consumers until the Iranians are defanged, which we hope is within just a few weeks and oil drops back down to the 60s.” [Fox News, Jesse Watters Primetime, 3/5/26]
    • Fox Business host Larry Kudlow claimed that once the conflict is resolved, prices will go even lower than before the war, adding, “This country is not beholden to the blockade in the Hormuz.” Kudlow claimed, “At the conclusion of Epic Fury,” oil prices “will probably drop into the mid-50s.” Three days later, he made a similar claim on Fox News: “Gas will move back to two and a half bucks, where it was before. … This country is not beholden to the blockade in the Hormuz. It’s not our problem. It's the rest of the world's problem.” [Fox Business, Kudlow Weekend, 3/7/26; Fox News, America Reports, 3/10/26]
    • Fox Business anchor Cheryl Casone suggested that Trump would keep the conflict with Iran “short-term” because “America First is making sure we can afford our prices at home — our gasoline prices.” A few days later, Casone reassured viewers on Fox’s Outnumbered that “oil prices will go down in weeks. Americans need to be patient and I think they are.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends First, 3/9/26; Fox News, Outnumbered, 3/11/26]
    • Fox Business host Charles Payne suggested oil would return to $60 a barrel “by the end of the year.” Payne added: “The market believes that this will be short-lived, that it will be resolved.” [Fox News, America Reports, 3/11/26]
    • A week before average gas prices topped $4 per gallon nationwide, former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore said on Fox Business that as the price of crude “comes down, whether that's going to be in three days or three weeks or three months when the straits are open, then we will see a resumption of oil back in the $55 to $60 range and that's very, very bullish for markets.” [Fox Business, Varney & Co., 3/23/26]
    • On Fox Business’ The Bottom Line, Moore reiterated his claim that prices would come down quickly like a “waterfall.” Moore said: “When the price starts coming down, it really comes down — I mean, you see like a waterfall happening. I am of the belief that we could, within the next few months, see the oil price back down to $50-60 a barrel, which is not $4 a gallon at the gas, it’s less than $3.” [Fox Business, The Bottom Line, 3/31/26]
    • Fox Business host Taylor Riggs: “Once you get oil prices down to, hopefully, pre-war conflict era, $65-70 a barrel. You open up this strait, it takes about a month for that to filter through, and then you start to get gas prices back down, is the hope.” [Fox Business, Kudlow, 4/8/26]
    • Moore on Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria: “When we get the strait open … whether it happens tomorrow, or next week, or in two weeks … then you’re going to see the oil price drift back down pretty close to where it was before all of this began.” Moore added: “Remember, we had a booming economy back in January and February of this year. There's no reason we can't get right back on that path.” (In fact, the U.S. economy lost 133,000 jobs in February). [Fox Business, Mornings with Maria, 4/9/26; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 4/3/26]