In response to the June jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 2 that included large downward revisions for the past two months and fell far short of expectations, conservative economist Stephen Moore claimed on Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria that “inflation is coming down” and “you are going to see continued real earnings growth.” He added: “We are continuing to see good payment for people, and their salaries are going up faster than inflation.” Moore also admitted that he was “a little disappointed” in the lower-than-expected jobs numbers.

But Moore’s assertions aren’t true. Inflation has almost continually increased since Trump first imposed global tariffs in April 2025 and has surged even higher since the end of February, when Trump launched a war against Iran that resulted in a monthslong closure of the Strait of Hormuz and halted the shipment of oil and other vital resources in the region.

And likely because of this extra surge in the inflation rate caused by Trump’s war, real earnings growth has turned negative since March, and real average earnings remain below where they were a year prior — effectively wiping out a year’s worth of wage growth.