Kilmeade's suggestion that cap-and-trade bill could "double the unemployment numbers" contradicted by CBO
Research ››› ››› CHRISTINE SCHWEN
Fox & Friends' Brian Kilmeade asked if the cap-and-trade legislation currently being debated in Congress could "double the unemployment numbers." But Kilmeade did not note that a CBO analysis of the bill found that "any aggregate change in unemployment would be small compared with the normal rate of job turnover in the economy."
Teasing an interview with House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer on the June 26 edition of Fox & Friends, co-host Brian Kilmeade asked of the cap-and-trade legislation currently being debated in Congress: "[C]ould it, in fact, double the unemployment numbers? House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer joins us next hour. We'll see if he can explain the numbers." Kilmeade did not provide any evidence that the bill would double the unemployment rate, and the Fox & Friends co-hosts did not return to the issue during the interview with Hoyer. However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis of the bill -- which co-host Steve Doocy referenced during the Hoyer interview -- stated that "any aggregate change in unemployment would be small compared with the normal rate of job turnover in the economy."
From the CBO analysis:
CBO expects total employment to be only modestly affected by a cap-and-trade program to reduce GHG emissions. Except during cyclical downturns such as the current recession, most individuals who seek employment are able to find jobs, and a cap-and-trade program would not greatly diminish that ability. Some regions and industries would experience substantially higher rates of unemployment and job turnover as the program became increasingly stringent. That transition could be particularly difficult for individuals employed in those industries (such as the coal industry) or living in those regions (such as Appalachia). However, any aggregate change in unemployment would be small compared with the normal rate of job turnover in the economy.
From the June 26 edition of Fox News' Fox & Friends:
KILMEADE: Have you heard of the climate change bill? Do you care? Well, you should. Some say it's just another way to get more money from taxpayers. And could it, in fact, double the unemployment numbers? House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer joins us next hour. We'll see if he can explain the numbers, and if they have the numbers in the House to pass it.
DOOCY: There are so many numbers floating around regarding the whole cap-and-trade idea. I read one thing -- critics of this say that it's going to cost the average American family $3,000 a year, and others have said --
HOYER: Well, that's --
DOOCY: The CBO -- the Congressional Budget Office -- said maybe $175 a year. What is the answer, according to your calculations? How much it's going to cost us if it does pass?
HOYER: Well, EPA and CBO, which is the independent fiscal analyst that serves the Congress and indeed the government, indicates that it's going to be about maybe 140 to 175 dollars per year, and that means about the cost of a postage stamp per day.
The fact of the matter is, though, that there's no tax in this bill. This is an attempt through the free market system to address the global warming issue, to make us energy independent, and to focus on innovation and the development of renewable energy sources which will make us energy independent in the future, which is critical for our national security.
So, I think the opponents of the bill are using wildly inflated figures which are not supported by the facts. It will obviously have some cost to invest, but it will also, we think, spur business, create jobs and a green economy.
GRETCHEN CARLSON (co-host): But do you believe this one particular number -- because the new rules will eventually cost the average household an extra $175 a year. Do you believe that number to be correct?
HOYER: I think it's in the ballpark, yes. That's, as I said, the CBO number -- EPA agrees with that number -- and, if so, I think that's pretty close to the projected possible cost of this bill.