Media uncritically cite flawed USA Today/Gallup poll question on Iraq


A July 6-8 USA Today/Gallup poll asked: “Which comes closer to your view about U.S. policy toward the situation in Iraq? Congress should act now to develop a new policy on Iraq. OR, Congress should not develop a new policy on Iraq until September when General Petraeus reports on the progress of the U.S. troop surge in Iraq.” According to the poll, 40 percent responded “act now,” while 55 percent responded “wait until September,” and 5 percent were “unsure.” But while presenting respondents with a reason for waiting until September, the poll question offered no reason for acting now, a position that many Democrats and an increasing number of Republicans advocate. Indeed, CNN's John Roberts noted that the results of that question “would seem to go against everything that's going on in Congress right now.” In addition, the question did not take note of a separate, preliminary report on the Iraqi government's progress that is scheduled to be delivered to Congress by July 15, which might have suggested another possible time frame for respondents.

The New York Times reported on June 24 that the preliminary report's “assessments are likely to conclude that the Iraqi government has failed to use the troop increase for the purpose the president intended, to strike the political accommodations that he said would stabilize the country.” On July 9, the day after the USA Today/Gallup poll was completed, the Associated Press reported that the July 15 “progress report on Iraq will conclude that the U.S.-backed government in Baghdad has not met any of its targets for political, economic and other reform, speeding up the Bush administration's reckoning on what to do next, a U.S. official said Monday.”

Several media outlets uncritically cited the USA Today/Gallup poll's flawed question and its findings. For example, USA Today reported on July 10:

In the survey, taken Friday through Sunday, one in five Americans says the increase in U.S. forces in Iraq since January has made the situation there better. Half say it hasn't made a difference.

More than seven in 10 favor removing nearly all U.S. troops from Iraq by April.

Still, 55% say Congress should wait to develop a new policy on Iraq until Gen. David Petraeus, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, delivers a promised assessment in September; 40% say Congress should act now.

CNN and the Los Angeles Times uncritically cited the USA Today/Gallup poll's findings. The Los Angeles Times reported on July 11 (reprinted on Newsday.com):

Congressional Democrats appear to have the public on their side.

A Gallup/USA Today poll released Tuesday showed record opposition to the war, with 71% of respondents saying they favor pulling out of Iraq by April 1. However, 55% also said they believed Congress should wait until the U.S. commander in Iraq delivers a full report Sept. 15 before making any decisions.

But Democratic efforts to leverage public sentiment into legislative action continue to founder in the narrowly divided Senate, where Democrats control a one-vote majority.

Just as the latest legislative campaign to force the president to alter his approach was getting underway Tuesday, Republican leaders succeeded in stalling it.

That upset Democratic plans to march through a series of votes on the war, including a proposal to compel a major withdrawal by spring.

A group of moderate lawmakers is also working on proposals that would not explicitly require a withdrawal, but would transition U.S. troops out of their current mission of quelling sectarian violence.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a leading defender of the president's strategy who just returned from a trip to Iraq, blamed Democrats for the delays.

“Why do we have to keep taking up the Iraq issue when we know that in September there will be a major debate?” McCain said after delivering an impassioned indictment of the proposal to pull out of Iraq. “The American people are wondering what the heck are we all about here.”

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-Mich.), who has helped lead the efforts to bring home U.S. troops, retorted that there was no reason to postpone the debate until then.

“Waiting for September ... is a delaying tactic on an issue that is the single most important issue on the minds of Americans today,” Levin said on the floor of the Senate. “The American people want us to act.”

From the July 11 edition of CNN's American Morning:

JOHN ROBERTS (host): The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll also found that 71 percent of people would favor removing all U.S. troops by April of next year. What do you find most significant about those numbers?

BILL SCHNEIDER (CNN senior political analyst): Well, that they are -- they have concluded by, in overwhelming numbers, it's nearly three-quarters, that we have to get out of Iraq and they want a time certain to do that, which is what the Democrats in Congress are pressing the president to do. Look, the -- the -- the troop buildup has been in place now and it doesn't appear to be working. Only 22 percent of Americans say the situation has improved as a result of the president's policy. Well, if we're not accomplishing our objectives and the Iraqis are not making any progress, Americans are left to conclude one thing: We better get out.

ROBERTS: My mistake, Bill, it was a USA Today/Gallup poll. It also found 55 percent of people think that Congress should wait until after General Petraeus reports on September the 15th before taking any action. I mean, that would seem to go against everything that's going on in Congress right now.

SCHNEIDER: Well, yes, the president is pleading with Congress to wait for that report. That's another couple of months. And the public seems inclined to say, “OK, we can wait a couple of months.” Is that because they have confidence in the president? I don't think so, because his ratings are at an all-time low as well.

It's because they want to give the benefit of the doubt to the military. They have confidence in General Petraeus and in the military. So the question simply said, should we wait to hear what the commander in the field, General Petraeus, reports two months from now before Congress acts? They still want out, but they figure, well, we'll give the military the benefit of the doubt here.

From the July 10 edition of CNN's Lou Dobbs Tonight:

SCHNEIDER: Records are being broken, and we are not talking about the weather. A new Gallup/USA Today poll gives President Bush a record-low job approval rating, 29 percent.

There's also a record high in the Gallup poll -- more than 60 percent of Americans now believe the Iraq war was a mistake. The troop buildup is now complete, but only 22 percent of Americans believe the situation in Iraq is any better. The White House argues that it's too early to judge, that this is the beginning of the new policy, not the end.

[...]

SCHNEIDER: Critics don't see a military failure on our part, they see a political failure on their part. The public has clearly run out of patience. 71 percent favor removing all U.S. troops from Iraq by next April, except for a limited number of counterterrorism forces -- 42 percent of Republicans agree. President Bush is pleading with Congress for more time.

BUSH [video clip]: And I believe Congress ought to wait for General Petraeus to come back and give his assessment of the strategy that he's putting in place before they make any decisions.

SCHNEIDER: The public says Congress can wait a couple of months for General Petraeus to report. Is it because they trust the president? More likely because they trust the military.

On the July 10 broadcast of ABC's Good Morning America, chief Washington correspondent George Stephanopoulos cited President Bush's record-low 29-percent approval rating in the USA Today/Gallup poll during an interview with White House press secretary Tony Snow. Snow responded: “Well, what's also interesting is Americans are pretty fair-minded. Fifty-five percent said, 'You know, we kind of wanna hear what the generals have to say,' which is what we've been saying.” Snow's comment drew no response from Stephanopoulos.

From the July 10 broadcast of ABC's Good Morning America:

STEPHANOPOULOS: But, Tony, as you know, it's not just the Senate, it's not just the House, it's the American public as well. There, there's a new poll out in USA Today this morning showing that 62 percent of the country believes that sending troops to Iraq was a mistake.

That's the highest number ever. Only 29 percent of the public approves of the job that President Bush is doing.

That's the lowest number he's ever had. How much longer can the president hold on in the face of numbers like that?

SNOW: Well, what's also interesting is Americans are pretty fair-minded. Fifty-five percent said, 'You know, we kind of wanna hear what the generals have to say," which is what we've been saying. And, you know, the president certainly understands his approval numbers. We'd love them to be higher. They are twice Congress' numbers, I'm sure they'd want those to be higher. War's a tough thing and it is always tough on a country, and I don't think anybody should try to -- to -- to dispute that fact. But what we also have to keep in mind is there, there are seeds being planted right now in Iraq, George, and it's gonna come one of two ways.