Cal Thomas used misleading county-by-county map to declare “an enormous sea of red”

In his November 8 column, nationally syndicated columnist Cal Thomas joined the roster of those heralding a county-by-county map of the November 2 presidential election results that deceptively overstates President George W. Bush's margin of victory over Senator John Kerry. Thomas stated that the county-by-county map “showed an enormous sea of red (Bush counties) with only tiny patches of blue (Kerry counties) in the usual places where elites and other condescending liberals reside.” Thomas went on to claim: “If you study this map, you have to conclude that America is not becoming more divided; it is slowly, but perceptively [sic: perceptibly], becoming more conservative and Republican.”

The county-by-county map is misleading, as Media Matters for America has noted (when Newsweek featured the map and when conservative commentators touted it). Princeton University professor Robert J. Vanderbei created a map that more accurately depicts voter preference in the 2004 presidential election. Rather than simply representing a county's voter preference with red (Republican) or blue (Democrat), Vanderbei's map takes into account the percentage of the Democratic and Republican vote in each county, using shades of purple to represent closely contested counties.

In addition, while the overwhelming majority of U.S. counties voted Republican, those counties that voted Democratic are generally more densely populated. As such, the county-by-county map, which is based on geography rather than population, visually overstates the Republican share of the vote. University of Michigan professors Cosma Shalizi and Mark Newman and University of Michigan graduate student Michael Gastner created a version of the red-and-blue county-by-county map that is based on population density rather than geographic size. They also created a county-by-county version of Vanderbrei's red, blue and purple map that takes into account population density as well as the degree to which a county's vote was split between Bush and Kerry.

Cal Thomas's column is syndicated by Chicago-based Tribune Media Services. His column is published in more than 540 newspapers, making him the most widely syndicated political columnist in the United States.