Discussing the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in South Dakota between Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) and Republican challenger John Thune, FOX News Channel host Bill O'Reilly declared that he has “no respect for” Daschle and said: “It doesn't matter what he [Daschle] does. He's going to lose.” But a September 20-22 poll for the race shows Daschle leading Thune by five points (with a 3.5-point margin of error).

Though this poll came out after O'Reilly's remarks on the September 23 broadcast of The Radio Factor, O'Reilly was basing his prediction not on two previous polls that showed Thune with a negligible lead over Daschle but, rather, on presidential polls that show President George W. Bush comfortably ahead of Senator John Kerry in the presidential race in South Dakota.

But South Dakota's history of voting Republican in presidential races is a weak indicator of state election results. In 2002, Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) narrowly defeated Thune for South Dakota's other Senate seat, and Representative Stephanie Herseth (D-SD) defeated Republican Larry Diedrich in a June 2004 special election to replace Republican Bill Janklow in the state's only U.S. House of Representatives seat. Janklow had resigned after his December 2003 manslaughter conviction.

On the September 23 broadcast of The Radio Factor with Bill O'Reilly, O'Reilly expressed certainty that Daschle would lose, then taunted him with “Daschle music”:

CALLER: Yesterday, you made a comment about Daschle of South Dakota?

O'REILLY: Yeah.

CALLER: And judging by the past history, we [in South Dakota] have voted Republican, but it's, unfortunately, seems like Daschle always gets voted in there.

O'REILLY: He's going to lose.

CALLER: They think that he -- you know, it means he has the seniority, that's --

O'REILLY: Yeah. It doesn't matter what he does. He's going to lose. The South Dakota -- the polls are so heavily weighted in the favor of President Bush. And Thune destroyed him on [MSNBC's] Meet the Press. And Daschle? Do we have Daschle music so we can go out to the bump? Do we have it? Roll it!

[MUSIC CLIP FROM THE SONG “NA NA HEY HEY KISS HIM GOODBYE” BY STEAM]: Na-na-na-na. Na-na-na-na. Hey, hey-ey. Goodbye.

O'REILLY: [chuckles]

[MUSIC CLIP]: Na-na-na-na. Na-na-na-na. Hey, hey-ey. Goodbye.

On the September 22 broadcast of The Radio Factor, O'Reilly explained that he has “no respect” for Daschle and insisted that the senator is “toast”: “So we go out on a break with Tom Daschle, who I -- I tell you, I have no respect for at all. Say goodbye to Tom Daschle, South Dakota. 58-39, Bush. Daschle is toast,” O'Reilly said.