FOX Business News contributors agree: "As Kerry's numbers increase, the market seems to go down"; too bad it's not accurate


During a panel discussion on the effect of politics on the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the July 22 edition of Your World w/ Neil Cavuto, FOX Business News contributor Meredith Whitney said, "As [Senator John] Kerry's numbers increase, the market seems to go down on almost a one-for-one correlation" -- an erroneous claim for which she provided no evidence. Nonetheless, FOX News business analyst and contributor Scott Bleier "totally" agreed.

From the July 22 edition of FOX News Channel's Your World w/ Neil Cavuto:

CAVUTO: Meredith, do you agree with that, that that's what's dominating the theme -- fears that this president might not get reelected?

WHITNEY: I think that's one easy way, uh, easy point you can point to in terms of why businesses aren't spending more. A lot of managers are using the uncertainty over the election to hold off plans on hiring. ... As [Senator John] Kerry's numbers increase, the market seems to go down on almost a one-for-one correlation.

CAVUTO: Scott, do you buy that -- that the better things look for Senator Kerry, the worse things look for the market?

BLEIER: I have to agree with it totally.

In fact, a comparison of Kerry's poll numbers with the performance of the Dow presents a different reality. At the beginning of the segment, Cavuto introduced this graph, saying of the Dow, "It's just a number, but it's a powerfully important psychological one":

[screen shot of "DOW SINCE MAY" graph from the first minute of the July 22 edition of Your World w/ Neil Cavuto]*

In contrast with the Dow's fluctuations, Gallup poll numbers for Kerry-Edwards '04 during the same time period have hovered around the 50 percent mark:

As Media Matters for America reported on July 6, Cavuto said on his show that the stock market was experiencing an "Edwards Dip" as a result of Kerry's announcement that he had chosen Senator John Edwards (D-NC) as his vice-presidential running mate. Cavuto made the statement despite FOX News chairman and CEO Roger Ailes's past repudiation of the practice of news outlets drawing causal connections between statements by political figures and short-term stock market behavior.

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*This item originally had an incorrect graphic. [back to article]

Posted In
Economy, Elections
2004 Elections
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