As Palin Falls In the Polls, National Journal Claims She's On The Rise

Blog ››› ››› ERIC BOEHLERT

The bad news for Sarah Palin this week? A new CNN poll shows that among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, only 12 percent want her to be the party's presidential nominee in 2012, which puts the former political superstar in a statistical tie with TV host Donald Trump.

The good news for Sarah Palin this week? Some within the Beltway press continue to hype her presidential chances. Outlets like the National Journal, which this week tagged her as a "rising" player in the Republican presidential field.

Here's the analysis [emphasis added]:

SARAH PALIN (previous rank: 8)
The basic formula for compiling these rankings is to take a candidate's likelihood of winning and divide by the likelihood that he or she will run in the first place. We're very skeptical that Palin will run, but her chances of securing the GOP nomination if she does are high. How can that be, given her falling approval ratings among Republicans? Consider Rep. Ben Quayle, who faced allegations during his primary campaign in Arizona that he posted messages on a raunchy local website. Quayle became the focus of the race, big-footing other candidates and splintering the opposition. Palin has the unique ability to do the same.

So, Palin's chances of winning the nomination remain "high," even though polling among Republican voters suggests it's not. And Palin can overcome her "falling approval ratings among Republicans" because Dan Quayle's son was elected to Congress in Arizona.

Or something.

Isn't it time for Beltway media elites to start telling the truth about Palin's chances?

Sarah Palin
The National Journal
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